Well, I used Tsukihime originally based solely on anime comparisons. Basically, you can draw a parallel to Arc and Saber in terms of how the relationship ends between them. I'm not familiar with Kagetsu Tohya. Rather, the only TYPE-MOON stuff I know of is Tsukihime and Fate/Stay Night.
I haven't gotten too far in Tsukihime due to finals being this week.
The screenshot does look like her, but I'm not sure I really follow---
Fate Route sounds like you go with Saber.
Unlimited Blade Works would be Rin due to Archer's Unlimited Blade works, I suppose.
Heaven's Feel would sound like you'd go with Illya given the reference to her looking like a snow angel at least in my F/S Night fansub.
But, it doesn't sound like Shiro unless the anime personality is off like Shiki's was in Tsukihime. He sounds more perverse and deranged in the game. Cynical, even. The anime has him very....depressed seemingly. Or introspective, at least.
I know changes occur obviously for marketing value, but it's odd, regardless if that's the case.